Fuel scarcity: FX subsidy for marketers = bad idea.

Apparently the fuel scarcity is still a thing. I wouldn’t know given that I’ve been in a part of the country where we have more liberal petrol stations that adjust their prices with the times. We pay somewhere around N230 per litre with no fuel queues and most seem to just get on with it.… Continue reading Fuel scarcity: FX subsidy for marketers = bad idea.

How to think about stability

First a quick quiz. The following are two graphs of the price of commodity X over time. Which of them is more stable? You might be forgiven for thinking option A is more stable. But what if time continues and then this happens.   Suddenly the answer is very different. Option B continues to trudge… Continue reading How to think about stability

What economists really do?

Economist (or Errconomist) bashing is not something that is unique to Nigeria. In the last decade economists have gotten a bad name, mostly as a fallout from the last big financial crisis. Specifically for not being the equivalent of a babalawo who can predict the future. The unfortunate truth is that most don’t really know… Continue reading What economists really do?

How large is the fuel subsidy?

As the fuel queues return, the question of “why” is back on the front burner. Historically, the presence of fuel queues has been associated with fuel subsidies and the struggles marketers faced with getting their money from the federal government. This time around things are a bit different. Or are they? We know that, given… Continue reading How large is the fuel subsidy?

More on missed opportunities for change

It’s no news that the recession is over and rather than reform and set the economy on a stronger growth trajectory, we just kind of hung around waiting for oil prices to recover. They have, we are out of recession, but the non-oil economy looks like it is set of a protracted period of no growth.… Continue reading More on missed opportunities for change

The fear of zero growth

To be clear, it is always dangerous to make statements off one data point, but looking at the trend in non-oil growth, it does appear that have entered a period of no growth. If you add the fact that population is growing at around 2.9 percent, then no-growth in the non-oil sector should be very… Continue reading The fear of zero growth