The CEPII has a new database on equilibrium exchange rates for 180 countries since 1973. You can read more about their methods here. Such data is useful for examining currency misalignments, especially comparing it across countries. I poked around it a bit to see what the Nigerian story is. The interesting thing is the volatility, at… Continue reading Naira currency misalignments from EQChange
This is really becoming tiring but we must. The central bank announced yet another intervention program disguised as a policy yesterday. The policy may be in response to marching orders received by the central bank governor during the last FEC meeting to reduce the spread between the interbank and black market. The spread has risen… Continue reading Naira struggles: And another one….
So just to recap, we have the raw materials, the skills, and the market, and if we stopped importing fuel our foreign exchange crisis might be over. If the central bank really believed that banning products from the official markets really led to local production of that product, then why isn’t fuel on the… Continue reading Naira struggles: The missing 42nd item
“Intelligence reports at the disposal of the bank reveal the involvement of some unpatriotic elements funding the push to have the Central Bank of Nigeria and the federal government reverse its foreign-exchange policy,” Isaac Okorafor, a spokesman, said in a statement on the Abuja-based central bank’s website. “Self-centered individuals, who have failed to assail our… Continue reading Sounds like something from the cold war
…a million technocrats cannot save us if the political decisions are not made and if we do not make the right decisions. I wish the technocrats would explain this from the start My article in the guardian today. Available here and in print. The tyranny of technocrats and a note on the Naira
I haven’t written anything about the naira in a while. We all know the story. An oil price-crash induced dollar shortage has turned the CBN into a soviet style apparatchik, fixing prices and trying to wrestle the market to submission. We thought the recession opened their eyes to the reality, and for a few weeks… Continue reading Naira struggles: The guns are out.
As we think about the road out of recession, the CBN has to focus on getting back to macroeconomic stability. We cannot come back if there are two exchange rates for the same currency. My piece in the guardian today. Read here