The Point

Option A: Keep the peg and administrative controls. Continue on a no-growth path (because for Nigeria 3% growth IS no growth) or worse. No growth = no taxes. No taxes + no oil money + no significant new debt (because nobody except the FG is going to buy Nigerian debt with that peg) = Failure. Failure on infrastructure plans. Failure on job creation plans. Failure on election promises. Failure on improvement in the well being of Nigerians plans.

 

Option B: Free the Naira and let it adjust. Free the fuel price and let it adjust. Convince everybody that you will no longer implement irrational policy. Spend all you can on infrastructure projects. Maybe, key word being MAYBE, get growth back up above 3%. But importantly, get the sense of crisis out of the way.

Summary of the point. Option A leads to CERTAIN doom. Option B maybe does not lead to doom depending on how you do it. There is NO option C or middle ground.

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