Is Political Change Inevitable?


1. The bulk of the FG’s revenue comes from crude oil sales. Somewhere around 70%.

2. Oil output has been flat for about two years and that doesn’t look like changing. The oil price isn’t projected to rise much further either with futures prices over the next few years ranging from about $55 to about $130 per barrel. Fair to say the FG’s oil revenue is going to remain flat for some time.

3. Non-Oil growth is projected to keep growing with projections of above 7% this year and no signs of a significant slow down.

Q. Will the Nigerian economy outgrow the FG and redefine the roles of the state or will the FG re-invent itself and somehow switch to non-oil revenue sources, retaining control in the process? Something which a couple of states already seem to be doing. Either way the political map is bound to change over the next decade.

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