Remember the N5000 note? And the alleged inflation effect? Wrote a paper with a colleague about it. What happened the last time we introduced new notes? The N100 and N500 and so on. Turns out nothing happened. Although something happens anytime we introduce a note. We panic. But not for long. You can read the paper here. Abstract below.
” The planned restructuring of the Nigerian currency to include a N5, 000 note has generated a lot of controversy. Much of the furor is centered around the supposed inflationary effects of introducing higher denomination notes, which provides the motivation for this paper. Using five different measures of inflation, from 1973 to 2011, we examine the effects of the introduction of new notes since the launch of the Naira in 1973. Our empirical results show that none of the currency restructuring episodes has had any effect on inflation. There, however, seems to be a short-lived positive effect on food inflation every time a new note is introduced. We attribute this not to the introduction of the note itself but to the change in inflation expectations following the introduction. However, the change in inflation expectations more than completely dissipates by the second month after which there is no subsequent effect.”
NB: Might be gated depending on where you are browsing. Contact me directly if you can’t access it.