Yes I know and NO I’m not trying to ruin your fun by somehow talking about Econometrics and the World Cup at the same time but I came across this interesting report by some guys who obviously love running regressions at PWC. They ran some regression to figure out what factors correlate with good world cup performance in general.
To start off with Brazil are favorites ( like we didn’t know that already) but some of the other results are a bit more interesting. First things first home advantage does count, Go South Africa. Richer countries don’t necessarily have a better chance than poor countries and population size doesn’t make a significant difference either. So what really matters? Football Traditions…..
I did not find the exact paper but you can read the article here.