Newtons first law of motion in Hausa?

I have been looking at education statistics in the north recently. Abysmal. It seems attitudes to education are almost as responsible as government failure, corruption or any of the other leadership issues which are not specific to the north.

It is also telling that a large part of the variation in literacy rates in the south can be explained by the presence of missionary activities during the colonial era. Something which was mostly absent in parts of the north because of the presence of strong Islamic states prior to colonization.

Is it plausible that this symbiotic relationship between christianity and education serves as some kind of disincentive in parts of the north? The graphs below show the correlation between literacy rates of local governments areas in 2010 and the fraction of the district which was christian or muslim in 1952. The district in 1952 which each LGA was a part of. The graphs suggest that current literacy rates cannot be explained by christian history. Although christianity seems to matter there are lots of LGA’s who have almost no christian history but still have very high literacy rates today. On the other hand islamic history seems to definitely have been detrimental.

Could apprehension towards christianity, which also happened to come packaged with education, be party responsible for the abysmal literacy rates in the north? Or is there something else? Corruption and government failure are not unique to the north so it cannot be just that. Can something be done to disentangle christianity and education in Nigeria? Perhaps development of modern education in Hausa. Do physics, chemistry, economics and the like need to taught in english? Do you live in the north? Do most primary or secondary schools teach in english or Hausa? I really interested in finding out.

Filed under: Random Thoughts, Education, Literacy Rates, Nigeria

Break up Nigeria into how many pieces?

In response to calls by some to break up Nigeria I thought to share this map. It shows the geographical location of ethnic groups in Nigeria. I could not label all of them but I think the few labelled help emphasize some points. The North is not just Hausa, the west is not just “Yoruba” and the east is not just Ibo. Exactly how many pieces will we need to break into to achieve ethnic homogeneity? I can count about 30.

Religious statistics are a bit harder to find but I’ll share those once I find them. You can download the entire ethnographic map here. (Warning: You need geographic information software to open it).

Filed under: Random Thoughts, Boko Haram, Ethnic Groups, Nigeria

A Plan

I have been one of those in favour of the removal of fuel subsidies. However for most Nigerians the problem is not that they don’t understand the logic of spending wisely. The problem is they don’t trust the government to do so. The government has used these tricks in the past and there really is no reason to believe they are serious about investing now. As popular as the protests are, and I support them, the only tangible plan I’ve seen involves returning to N65 per liter, reducing the  cost of governance, plugging holes in oil sector and provide power. The N65 is popular however the rest are all pretty vague. Almost as vague as the government SURE plan.

I have therefore decided to try to contribute by coming up with a plan that doesn’t require people trusting the government. This is a plan to replace the governments proposed subsidy reinvestment and empowerment program. It is based on three principles: ringfencing the savings from the subsidy removal; enforcing pre agreed conditions on projects with the federal, state and local government; and providing a tool for ordinary Nigerians to monitors projects. This plan is not supposed to replace other demands by protesters. Demands such as reducing the allowances of members of the national assembly.

This plan is still in the early stages of development and all suggestions are welcome. Please email suggestions to me at thesubsidyplan@gmail.com.

ThePlan(Download)

Filed under: Uncategorized, fuel subsidy, Nigeria, protests, Transparency

Now that the subsidies are gone….

The subsidies are gone. The subsidies on PMS at least. Cue the expected panic and protests. What exactly should we fight for during these protests? Or what exactly should YOU fight for since I won’t physically be on the streets.

Should we fight for a return to N65 per litre? No. The simple option facing the government is to spend N1.x tn on the fuel subsidies or on infrastructure. The answer is really simple. Spending on infrastructure has a multiplicative effect on the economy. The effect of a new three lane highway between Abuja and Lagos, for example, outweigh any possible benefits of the fuel subsidy. Yes there is a direct immediate effect on income which is felt most by the poor and figuring how to alleviate that is important. A return to N65 won’t achieve that.

What should we fight for? For starters we need to fight to ensure that the saving actually goes to infrastructure and not salaries or some other meaningless government program. The SURE document outlines a couple of these plans but strict timelines need to be stated. Secondly we need to force the government to cut some of its own trivial spending. A certain food budget perhaps. Finally we need to make it clear that if these infrastructure projects do not materialize the current administration will be voted out come 2015.

These are the things that I believe we should fight for. The opportunity is there to change things. We can change for the better or worse. Returning to the status quo should not be an option

Filed under: Random Thoughts, fuel subsidy, Nigeria, Protest